The battery technology route is highly competitive and lithium iron phosphate faces up to the challenge

Lithium iron phosphate shines in 2021 due to its cost-performance advantage, but whether it can continue to be accepted by the market remains to be seen.  The vitality of this material itself is directly related to whether there is a demand to undertake the investment and construction capacity, and also related to the prospect of manufacturers in the field.

Lithium iron phosphate's biggest competitor is ternary, which has an advantage in energy density.  In terms of cost, the two materials also need to use lithium resources, but the nickel and cobalt used in ternary are more expensive than the phosphorus and iron of lithium iron phosphate, so the cost is higher.  The latest market price of ICCSINO shows that the price of ternary cell is 820 yuan /KWh, while the price of lithium iron phosphate is 690 yuan /KWh, which means that the cost of ternary solution for a 50-kwh car will be 6,500 yuan higher.

Driven by domestic Tesla Model 3, ModelY, Wuling Hongguang MINI EV and other top-selling cars, the installed volume of lithium iron phosphate battery in 2021 was more than ternary battery.  Data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in 2021, the total amount of domestic power battery installed is 154.5GWh, among which lithium iron phosphate battery installed is 79.8GWH, accounting for 51.7%, with a year-on-year growth rate of 227.4%, which is 4 times the growth rate of ternary battery.

However, the main cost performance of lithium iron phosphate can not afford a long-term price rise.  Li Jigang said that at present, with the price of lithium iron phosphate power battery, the market acceptance is in the critical state, the downstream in order to fight for market share are willing to sacrifice profits temporarily, there is no future for energy storage lithium electricity price, and in the consumer electronics market, "a lot of factory stop the production in last October, lay flat to quit".

An insider of a battery material factory in North China told reporters that in 2022, with the gradual output of nickel mines in Indonesia and the recovery of cobalt mines in Africa, the prices of nickel and cobalt will gradually return, and the price competitive advantage of high-nickel ternary materials will be gradually reflected.

In terms of energy density, BYD blade battery, CATL CTP(Cell to Pack) and other technologies optimize the battery structure, removing modules and other links to improve the volume utilization of battery packs.  But from the performance of the material itself, Li Jigang believes that lithium iron phosphate energy density is close to the ceiling, there is not much room for improvement.  In the pursuit of electric vehicles for range and intelligent features, lithium iron phosphate may be inadequate.

When the ceiling of lithium iron phosphate appears, the cost performance advantage is no longer, other technical routes will usher in opportunities.  Li Liang said that lithium manganese acid batteries are slowly being favored by the industry.  It takes 0.22 tons of lithium carbonate to prepare one ton of lithium manganate, 0.03 tons less than that of lithium iron phosphate. With the current price of lithium carbonate as high as 470,000 yuan/ton, the cost of this item alone can be reduced by 14,000 yuan, and the most expensive lithium manganate at present is only 90,000 yuan/ton.  In addition, lithium manganate has basically solved the problem of manganese dissolving out, and has been greatly improved in terms of life span, platform voltage and energy density, so it has the strength to compete with lithium iron phosphate.

In energy storage area, lithium iron phosphate will go head-to-head with sodium-ion batteries.  Sodium-ion batteries benefit from resource abundance and have cost advantages, and have better low temperature and fast charging performance, which can adapt to the alpine zone.  CATL unveiled its first sodium-ion battery in July last year, saying it could have an energy density of 160Wh/ kg, close to that of lithium iron phosphate batteries.  The next generation of sodium batteries can have an energy density of 200Wh/ kg.

At present, sodium ion batteries have not been industrialized, but many industry insiders say that the current unusually high lithium price will stimulate sodium batteries to accelerate the replacement process.  Large-scale commercial use is no longer far away. CATL plans to put into production a production line of sodium ion batteries in 2022 and basically complete the industrial chain by 2023.

Meanwhile, lithium iron phosphate is reinventing itself through materials and processes.  One of the upgrading directions includes lithium manganese phosphate, Li Jigang said that lithium manganese phosphate compared with lithium iron phosphate energy density increased by 20%, the overall cost decreased by 10%, currently in the two-wheel electric vehicles and other small electric field has been gradually increased;  The energy density increased by 30% after lithium ferromanganese composite with 30% terpolymer, which has been applied to passenger cars in small batches.

CATL's scheme is in the lithium manganese phosphate on the basis of other metals, the company revealed in the recent investor exchange, the new product M3P will be launched, known as "phosphate series ternary", the cost of the phosphate series ternary is lower than that of ternary. (Source: STCN)